Notes
What the house learns from keeping a family's wealth over time: method, measurement, memory. Few notes, written to last.
· The method
Measuring the reliability of investment forecasts: the Brier score
Born of weather forecasting in 1950, adopted by judgement research: how to grade the accuracy of predictions, separate skill from luck, and turn it into a capital allocation rule.
Read the note · The methodThe investment decision journal: separating skill from luck
Record every decision before the outcome is known: the thesis, the assumptions, the price, the horizon. The three biases the journal neutralises, and how to review it.
Read the note · The patternWhy nine family fortunes in ten do not survive the third generation
The Williams & Preisser study, its critics, and the lesson that survives scrutiny: fortunes die from within, through scattered information and fading memory.
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